Monday, March 18, 2019


Updated on March 18, 2019 10:15:19 AM EDT

There is no relevant economic data being released or other mortgage-related events taking place today, the only day of the week with nothing scheduled. The rest of the week brings us the release of only three monthly reports for the markets to digest, none of which are considered to be highly important. However, we do have another FOMC meeting, economic predictions and press conference to deal with mid-week.

Januarys Factory Orders report will start the week’s activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This report will give us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for both durable and non-durable goods. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.2% in new orders. A decline would be good news for the bond market and could lead to an improvement in mortgage rates since it would point towards economic weakness. However, it usually takes a large variance from forecasts for this report to affect mortgage rates noticeably because a significant portion of this data was already posted in last weeks Durable Goods Orders release.

Overall, Wednesday is the most important day of the week due to the FOMC items. There are no other key events this week, so we should see the most movement in rates mid-week. The calmest day could be tomorrow or today. I don’t believe we will see an overly active week for rates, but the potential is there. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is currently near its lowest level since early January . Before then, we have to go back to January of last year to find this level. There appears to be more room for yields to fall, assuming we don’t get significantly unfavorable news in the immediate future. That would be good news for mortgage shoppers since rates tend to track bond yields. However, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing soon as market momentum can swing without notice.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2019